NH Predictions and Weather

by Obama08, Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 03:51:36 PM EST

The most recent poll which is being touted by MSNBC and others is the Suffolk University poll.

Hillary 37
Obama   25
Edwards 15

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?dia ryId=3056

The weather is supposed to be around 46 degrees and rainy.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0 108/Weather_channel.html

Obama just won Iowa. Hillary is about to start "drawing contrasts."

Take a look at those factors above, bring in any additional factors you can think of, and make a prediction below.




Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards (all tags)

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Re: NH Predictions and Weather (none / 0)

New Hampshire goes to Obama, but it is closer than Iowa.

Obama      42
Clinton    39
Edwards    16
Richardson  3


by Obama08 on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 03:54:04 PM EST

Why? (none / 0)

I think that in the case of rain, only those voters who are most energized get out. Obama is truly energizing new voters. Additionally, he will get some supporters of other candidates who are no longer viable after the Iowa results.

New Hampshire is as much up in the air at this point as Iowa was 5 days ago.


by Obama08 on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 04:00:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH Predictions and Weather (none / 0)

I had the best Iowa prediction so call me Nostradamus (my prediction can be found on the official prediction thread). I await my air tickets to Iowa.

I will hold off on my prediction until the late evening of the day before voting takes place.


Slash and burn politics baby! Say anything do anything lie cheat steal railroad the opposition into submission: CLINTON FORMULA FOR 2008.
by crackityjones on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 03:57:52 PM EST

Re: NH Predictions and Weather (none / 0)

Come on, you can of course revise your estimate, but predicting it right now will make you that much more impressive.


by Obama08 on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 04:01:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH Predictions and Weather (none / 0)

I'm sorry I cannot predict right now. I mean I could but it would be worthless as it would not be grounded in reality. It would be, pardon the expression, "pulling something of my ass."


Slash and burn politics baby! Say anything do anything lie cheat steal railroad the opposition into submission: CLINTON FORMULA FOR 2008.
by crackityjones on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 04:28:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH Predictions and Weather (none / 0)

Obama -45
Clinton-37
Edwards- 10
by cmpnwtr on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 04:17:55 PM EST

Re: NH Predictions and Weather (none / 0)

Clinton
Obama

Edwards

Richards


ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 04:22:56 PM EST

Re: NH Predictions and Weather (none / 0)

Obama-40
Clinton-35
Edwards-25
Richardson-10
The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 04:52:38 PM EST

Re: NH Predictions and Weather (none / 0)

110%? :p


by Rtael on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 05:28:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH Predictions and Weather (none / 0)

lol, I meant to bring Richardson to 5%.  Oops!


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 05:33:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH Predictions and Weather (none / 0)

The remaining 5% is margin of error ;)


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 05:34:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NH Predictions and Weather (none / 0)

Obama - 44
Clinton - 31
Edwards - 20

Key Factors - Older voters were Clinton's friends in Iowa, not Obama's, and in the caucuses they accounted for 22 percent of the participants. In New Hampshire four years ago, voters over age 65 represented just 11 percent of thee Democratic electorate.

Obama enjoyed a margin of better than 2-1 over Clinton among independents.


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 05:03:01 PM EST

Re: NH Predictions and Weather (none / 0)

Obama 35
Clinton 30
Edwards 20
Richardson 10

5 percent spread between Kucinich and the other candidates, whose names will--I assume--still be on the ballot.


by HatchInBrooklyn on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 05:05:38 PM EST

Re: NH Predictions and Weather (none / 0)

Clinton 34
Obama 30
Edwards 22
Richardson 10
Other - 4
vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 05:22:10 PM EST

Re: NH Predictions and Weather (none / 0)

The election would be close between obama and Clinton.

Clinton's organization in Nh would give her the edge right now .

However its too early to make a reasoned prediction , wait till Monday.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 05:27:37 PM EST

Re: NH Predictions and Weather (none / 0)

Obama 39%
Clinton 33%
Edwards 21%
Richardson 6%
Kucinich 1%

I think Obama's turnout will be better than Clintons--due to the unique enthusiasm of his supporters, as we saw in Iowa--causing him to exceed poll predictions. The debate tomorrow night won't matter much as long as Obama doesn't tank. He needs to seem presidential more than anything. I recall in 2004 that Kerry got so much credit just for seeming presidential, even though he didn't score any points.

I'm prepared to be completely wrong, however. Clinton has been pretty strong in NH all year. Also, Edwards could surprise me, but I sense that there's a ceiling for him somewhere in the 20s.


by DPW on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 11:23:10 PM EST


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