There are a lot of diaries to individual candidates saying what they could have done better. There are a lot of diaries saying, "I told you so." This is not one of these diaries. I wanted to take the time to look at the results for each of the top three candidates and give them credit where credit is due. Each of the candidates really did remarkably well.
I'll start with third place, Hillary Clinton. Her finish is the hardest for her campaign to spin. She did win nearly 30% of the vote in a state which has never elected a woman, is not part of her geographic sphere, and in which she has no history. She was able to put together a solid victory among the oldest voters in Iowa. Additionally, Iowa voters with ties to unions were some of Hillary's strongest supporters, which doesn't bode well for Edwards. Those voters are some of the most consistent and the most likely to remember her work in the first Clinton administration.
She still has a lead in New Hampshire and can really maintain a close race if she is able to get a strong victory in the granite state. If Hillary does not win in New Hampshire she will truly be in trouble. Though Mark Penn is trying to remind everyone that President Clinton did not win the first five states, Hillary Clinton in 2008 is not Bill Clinton in 1992. Hillary has been seen as the front runner for a year and has a 12 point lead in New Hampshire according to the most recent poll. If she is not able to win, it will be seen as the end of the road for her by the national media.
John Edwards finished in second spending only a small fraction of the amount that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton spent. He did extraordinarily well among rural areas in Iowa. He won prior caucus goers outright. This demonstrates an incredible ability to solidify support and maintain it.
Something which I think we should all remember is that John Edwards put together enough votes that he would have won a strong majority in a caucus the size of that held 4 years ago. He spent an amount similar to that of Kerry in 04 with significantly better results. If he raised the amount of money that Obama and Clinton did he very likely would have won the Iowa caucuses.
Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses. He was competitive in rural Iowa. He won caucus goers under the age of 60. He overwhelmingly won first time caucus goers. He brought out an incredible number of young voters. He won among both men and women. He won Democrats, Republicans and those between. He won everyone from the most liberals to those most moderate. He won among all income brackets.
Obama's caucus performance is incredibly impressive. Yes, he did spend a lot of money, but Romney has shown that big spending doesn't mean you win the caucus. He had a message which appeals to voters in all demographic groups. He was able to put together a field operation which was truly second to none.
All the campaigns should be happy with some parts of the results, but Iowa really shows what this campaign is all about. The dichotomy between Clinton and Obama's arguments is real and motivated voters to turn out in a way never seen before. Democrats as a whole should be excited by the ability of all the campaigns to appeal to an unprecedented number of voters.
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